Frigid, arctic windchills of 30 below zero will greet Iowans as they head to their caucus sites Monday evening. Here, in America’s heartland, hundreds of thousands will gather in schools, churches and community centers to help decide America’s future.
Their choice will help set the stage for November, determining who will face Joe Biden in the Presidential election.
Republicans maintained Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status for the 2024 GOP primary cycle, despite longstanding concerns about the state’s lack of diversity. Polling suggests more than 90% of those planning to attend the Republican primary identify as White.
But for Iowans, launching the nation’s presidential contest every four years remains a key tradition.
When caucus site doors open at 7pm central time, Donald Trump will be the overwhelming favorite to win the state. The former president has remained dominant in the polls throughout the last year, never losing his grasp on first place. Despite remaining mired in legal troubles, promoting himself as a would-be dictator, and refusing to participate in debates, none of the other candidates have successfully dethroned him as the frontrunner.
But even with this foregone conclusion of a Trump victory, all eyes remain on Iowa for the final results.
All eyes on Iowa as any number of outcomes could sway the race for president
New polling suggests potential weak spots in Trump’s foundation of support. According to the final poll before the caucus, one in four Iowa GOP caucus goers with a preferred candidate say they may still switch their vote. Of those willing to consider someone else, nearly 40% were Trump supporters.
While that number wouldn’t be enough to change Trump’s chance of winning, it does pose a possibility his final number could be lower than expected. With sky-high expectations heading into the night, that could deal a blow to the former President’s campaign.
Haley and DeSantis in tight race for second place
But Trump isn’t the only candidate to watch. Both Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, former Trump loyalists, are in a race for second place against the former President. DeSantis, who has poured more than $150 million into Iowa, is struggling to avoid a third place finish. The one-time favorite in the race is now in a perilous position.
If DeSantis falls to third place behind Nikki Haley, which polling suggests is a possibility, his path forward in the race becomes deeply unclear.
The far-right Florida Governor is dropped to fifth place in New Hampshire, the next state to vote. Nikki Haley, on the other hand, has surged in the Granite state. The former South Carolina Governor and former UN Ambassador is steadily closing in on Trump. That momentum is unlikely to be blunted by a close third place finish in Iowa, but would undoubtedly get a boost if she could beat out DeSantis for second place.
But Haley is also not immune to potential failure tonight. An NBC/Des Moines Register poll released Sunday showed her garnering the lowest levels of enthusiasm of any candidate. Only 9% of Haley’s supporters described themselves as “extremely enthusiastic” about caucusing for her. By comparison, roughly half of Trump supporters are heading into the night with extreme enthusiasm.
That same poll showed Haley with the lowest favorability numbers of any candidate in the race. Those numbers are undoubtedly influenced by a barrage of negative ads from the DeSantis campaign targeting Haley.
Iowans will cast secret ballots at caucus sites to launch 2024 election
As is perpetually true in politics, anything can happen once those caucus doors close.
Unlike a traditional primary, representatives for each candidate at each caucus site will be able to give one last pitch to sway undecided or on-the-fence voters.
Following speeches, each voter will choose their candidate in a secret ballot. In some instances, voters will select their candidate’s name on a pre-printed ballot. In many cases, however, they will simply write the candidate’s name on a blank slip of paper.
And once those votes are cast, the 2024 race for president will officially be underway.
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